The special election there is almost certain to go to a runoff. Dems had expressed some confidence to me in Ossoff's path to 50% of the vote and avoiding a Jan runoff. If Democrats can run up a big, big score here, that’s how Biden manages to pull off a victory in Georgia, a state that hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1992. The state hasn't voted for a Dem presidential nominee since 1992. Temper your expectations on the timeline for when to expect to have definitive results in Georgia because of this:Â, Charlie Yes! If Republicans can flip this county, that’s a very good sign that they’ll be able to hold on to NC. Jackson County There are 9 County offices. Two races in that state, and one is almost certain to head to a January 5 runoff, while the other is going to be extremely close and could potentially also go to a runoff. Nearly 800,000 new voters have registered since 2018. Mar 02, 2020 - Mar 06, 2020. That's why I wrote about it not too long ago: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/14/georgia-swing-states-428528, “I think all of these skeptics that there may have been scattered in rural Georgia are now united behind Trump,” said one GOP state…. The solicitor general prosecutes misdemeanors for the county. Telling tweet from election law expert Rick Hasen: "Biggest surprise of the election watch for me so far: Florida's election administration doesn't make my top 3 of places I'm worried about. So I think the current margin there is going to shrink, Getting at the “red mirage” idea, if we don’t get Atlanta and big GA burbs, and some major blue areas of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania it’s easy to see Trump’s lead holding for now or staying closer than they should end up. There are a huge number of potentially competitive races. I got to cover the 2018 House midterms, and the themes for that election (suburban flight from GOP, deeper party polarization in suburban/urban vs. rural/exurban, gender gap between the two parties) are now, likely, to come into fuller view. He can lose Georgia, but then he needs to win EVERYTHING ELSE if he also lost Pennsylvania. In any case, Georgia will be a heavy lift for Dems, even if the Atlanta suburbs are bolting the GOP. There are also races in Montana, South Carolina, Kansas, Alaska and Texas that could flip if Democrats are having a REALLY good night. This is a spot where if Republicans can dig up some new non-college educated white voters, they might show up here. Stay tuned on Nov. 3 for live analysis from our reporters. Same for GA senate races CharlieÂ, I don’t know Georgia as well as Florida, but considering how whites performed in Florida, it’s difficult to see how they don’t do the same in GeorgiaÂ, For example, Holly, one example from Jen O’Malley Dillon, Biden’s campaign manager, that implied they were still counting on Pa could be seen in this quote. I still have a hard time believing the Democratic nominee has a shot of picking up its 16 electoral votes, but there's plenty of evidence to suggest that it's in play. Georgia has an middling number of people with four-year college degrees. Two counties where we might be able to see that these trends converge are: Gwinnett County in Georgia and Wilson County, NC. Now that California is in Biden's column, he's at 209 electoral votes, to Trump's 119. Wilson County, a suburban/exurban county in eastern NC, voted for Clinton in 2016, but barely. POLITICO's coverage of 2020 races for President, Senate, House, Governors and Key Ballot Measures.