He said the lower demand that came when China shut down in February had passed, but had been replaced by a global demand shock as countries around the world entered lockdown as the epidemic spread. In response, investor sentiment around the world improves, supporting business confidence and ultimately boosting consumer incomes. “My most optimistic prediction of a rebound is 2021,” he said. But the risks to this outlook look firmly tilted towards the downside. Indeed, exports to the US remained robust amid some emerging signs of a pickup in demand from China. 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What could substantially improve the outlook? Which country are you working at and I assume hasnt experienced a drop in volume? Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. Dr Grahaeme Henderson, Vice-president of shipping and maritime at Shell International Trading and Shipping. If you are at an office or shared network, you can ask the network administrator to run a scan across the network looking for misconfigured or infected devices. Moody’s Investors Service’s upgrade of the container shipping industry comes after Drewy last month upgraded its own 2020 profit expectation for the industry by 16 percent to $11 billion. This should support a pickup in total world trade growth to 2.5% in 2021 and 3% in 2022. Cash support to households might offer some help for goods imports, but the risks here are very much to the downside given households’ high debt burden and the rising unemployment rate. To receive full access, Subscribe Today. Compounding the demand uncertainty is the Jan. 1 implementation date of the IMO 2020 low-sulfur fuel regulation. While the phase one trade deal offers hope of better relations ahead, the risk of further barriers being erected – especially between the US and China – remains. Michael Parker, Chairman of Citi’s shipping and logistics division. Dr Grahaeme Henderson, Vice-president of shipping and maritime at Shell International Trading and Shipping. The phase one deal signed on Jan. 15 offers hope that barriers won’t increase further this year, but the tariff reductions that they agreed to are relatively modest. Such a scenario is increasingly viewed as the most plausible upside risk for the world economy, according to our Global Risk Survey. This should enable container throughput at the country’s ports (including Kaohsiung, the world’s 14th busiest) to expand at a similar pace. Latest data offers a mix of reasons to be both hopeful and wary about world trade prospects in 2020. You can also subscribe to our daily newsletter. For the trade-intensive economies of China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, the boost would be even greater, lifting goods trade (and potentially container throughput) by as much as 5ppts versus the baseline by 2021. For more info go to our Cookie Policy, Bolidt ramps up deliveries for cruise industry return, Teekay Corporation Reports Third Quarter Adjusted Net Income of $15 Million, with LNG The Main Driving Force, Teekay Tankers Ltd. Reports Third Quarter 2020 Results, Crew change requirements -Singapore issues revised circular, The Mission to Seafarers’ Christmas service celebrates seafarers with global online event, Guide for Carriage of Hazardous Materials, Little Tonnage Sold for Demolition as Pandemic Rages, Moody’s: Shipping Outlook turns stable on EBITDA growth, improving supply-demand balance, Gas Fest virtual workshops identify incremental pathway for LNG-fuelled shipping, Subscribing I accept the privacy rules of this site, IMO’s global action to protect marine biodiversity, INTERCARGO.org: Crew Change – time is running out, The Panama Maritime Authority & COVID19 Measures, Here are 4 Signs the World is Embracing Natural Gas, Annual Report 2019 – A message from Remi Eriksen, Top 5 questions on maritime contracts and COVID 19. Inbound tourist arrivals were down more than 40% in the year to October, contributing to a 26% fall in import-intensive retail sales. I don’t know where people get their information from but I work at the dock and it hasn’t slowed down. – In our view improving global business sentiment and a range of local factors should mean that world trade starts to recover from mid-2020 onwards. Honestly this article isn’t true. In aggregate, therefore, our forecast is for China’s goods imports to strengthen by almost 3% in 2020 and 4.5% in the following couple of years. Of course, one key factor behind a dismal year for world trade in 2019 has been the erection of ever-higher barriers to trade — principally between the US and China. 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