“ Impact evaluations measure the change in a development outcome that is attributable to a defined intervention. Nuno Duarte, Andrea Geraci, Silvia Granato, Gianluca Mazzarella, Maria João Mortágua 2020. Causal Inference and Counterfactuals | Impact Evaluation ... Impact evaluations attempt to attribute change to a specific programme or policy and establish what would have happened without the intervention (the counterfactual) by using scientific, sometimes experimental, methodologies such as randomised control trials or … To fill in the gap, we follow the concept of counterfactual learning (CL) van2019interpretable, where the informative EC contents can be identified as potential decision-influencing factors by asking the counterfactual: how would the outcome change if the selected texts were modified?Such CL enables us to leverage abundant cross-domain texts (e.g., news … Improve evaluation designs to answer policy-relevant questions: quality impact evaluations embed the counterfactual analysis of attribution in a broader analysis of the causal chain, allowing an understanding of why interventions work, or not, and yielding policy relevant messages for better design and implementation. This course is designed to equip the participants with adequate skills to conduct rigorous impact evaluations for their interventions. Essentially, in trying to understand this, an evaluation seeks to results framework, logical framework, development hypothesis • …and require a credible and rigorously defined counterfactualto control for factors other than the Impact Evaluation Working Group. Data collection arrangements Snubbed and underestimated by academics, data collection has to be considered as a taxing and crucial activity. 10, No. counterfactual impact evaluation. Impact Evaluation Impact Evaluation (IE) assesses changes than can be attributed to a particular intervention. IE involves COUNTERFACTUAL analysis (CAUSAL mechanism), that is, acomparisonbetweenwhatactuallyhappened andwhatwouldhavehappenedintheabsenceoftheintervention. MIGUEL ANGEL LUQUE-FERNANDEZ A COUNTERFACTUAL APPROACH FOR IMPACT EVALUATION Project Impact Evaluation Design - ADB Here, we report on a systematic review to evaluate whether estimates about the effectiveness of protected area differ between traditional and counterfactual impact evaluation methods. In its simplest form, a CIE compares a group of What constitutes credible and appropriate impact evaluation? Impacts may be positive or negative, intended or unintended, direct or indirect. Search for more papers by this author. The method of counterfactual impact evaluation allows to identify which part of the observed actual improvement (e.g. Impact evaluation assesses the degree to which changes in a specific outcome or variable of interest as measured by a pre-specified set of indicators can be attributed to a program rather than to other factors. In general, impact evaluations can be classified into two approaches: quantitative approach and qualitative approach. This work is increasingly important as the global development community works to reduce poverty and achieve the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. increase in income) is attributable to the impact of the intervention (since such improvement might occur not only due to the intervention but also due to other factors, e.g. Paul J. Ferraro, Associate professor of economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University. overall economic growth). Impact evaluations compare what happened with the MCC investment to what would have happened without it through the explicit definition and measurement of a counterfactual. There are also additional questions to the main question: what requirements have to be met? These counterfactual techniques provide a wellfounded way to evaluate and optimize online metrics by exploiting logs of past user interactions. Some people however argue that in turbulent, complex situations, it can be impossible to develop an accurate estimate of what would have happened in the absence of an intervention, since this absence would have affected the situation in ways that cannot be predicted. 3. The keynote speakers are Jochen Kluve (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin), and Steve Pischke (London School of Economics). OUTLINE OF PRINCIPLES OF IMPACT EVALUATION PART I KEY CONCEPTS Definition Impact evaluation is an assessment of how the intervention being evaluated affects outcomes, whether these effects are intended or unintended. 2007), The impact of capital subsidies: new estimations under continuos treatment, Giornale degli State of the art counterfactual non-experimental methods have been applied to estimate the impact on employment creation, growth in sales, level of investment and changes in labour productivity and average payroll costs. USAID Definition of Impact Evaluation - Review • Impact Evaluations are based on models of cause and effect … – Requires a causal theory of change • E.g. Abstract One concern about impact evaluation is whether a program has made a difference (Owen 2006). Use of Genetic and Coarsened Exact matching … It can also be used by other institutions involved in implementing and … Impact evaluation seeks to determine the longer term results that are generated by policy decisions, often through interventions, projects or programmes. CHALLENGES AND OPTIONS FOR COUNTERFACTUAL IMPACT EVALUATION (CIE). Adopting counterfactual methods. The Logic of Counterfactual Impact Evaluation. Counterfactual thinking and impact evaluation in environmental policy Counterfactual thinking and impact evaluation in environmental policy Birnbaum, Matthew; Mickwitz, Per 2009-06-01 00:00:00 Paul J. Ferraro Abstract Impact evaluations assess the degree to which changes in outcomes can be attributed to an intervention rather than to other factors. As our main result, we found that traditional methods tended to overestimate the impact of PAs in avoiding deforestation when compared with counterfactual methods. In contrast to outcome monitoring, which examines whether targets have been achieved, impact evaluation is structured to answer the question: how Abstract One concern about impact evaluation is whether a program has made a difference (Owen 2006). 1, 2010, pp. Impact evaluation assesses the changes that can be attributed to a particular intervention, such as a project, program or policy, both the intended ones, as well as ideally the unintended ones. It offers scholars as well as practitioners from public administrations, consultancy firms and nongovernmental organizations insights into counterfactual impact evaluation methods and the potential of data-based policy and program evaluation. Impact evaluation is one of several types of evaluations. It is a particularly important one due to its ability to isolate the intervention´s impact. In other words, an impact evaluation is able to attribute impacts to a program and to that program alone. • According to the World Bank oAssess changes in the well-being of individuals, households, communities or firms that can be attributed to a particular project, program or policy oProvides feedback to help improve the design of programs and policies Question: Access changes in what? Chapter 4. Pilot and feasibility study on the sustainability and effectiveness of results for European Social Fund participants using Counterfactual impact evaluations Final Report By Marco Pompili Impact Evaluation in Development Institutions: A Look at the African Development Bank An impact evaluation relies on rigorous methods to determine the changes in outcomes which can be attributed to a specific intervention based on cause-and-effect analysis. HINTS FROM THE ITALIAN EXPERIENCE Paolo Severati Isfol – ESF Evaluation Unit 1. How to measure impact? Initiative in Portugal using Counterfactual Impact Evaluation methods. The aim of the conference is to discuss developments in counterfactual methods applied to the Impact Evaluation of policy interventions, with a focus on employment, social and education policies.
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